Fire OblationTier 1
at 12/20 PTM Online Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Astra Cleric | 13.6% | 6 | 2-3-1 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 47.4% | -1.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.6% | 8 | 3-4-1 | 43.8% | 45.8% | 47.6% | -1.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.2% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 54.3% | +2.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.9% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.2% | +4.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 54.8% | +4.6 |
| Water Fractal | 3.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 53.4% | +3.3 |
| Wind Arcane | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 43.4% | -6.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.6% | +4.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.4% | +5.6 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.4% | +2.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 42.9% | -6.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 42.7% | -5.5 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.6 |
| Water Allies | 2.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.0% | +5.8 |
| Water Chess | 2.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 54.2% | +4.1 |
| Water Genbu | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +8.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.9% | -3.8 |
| Arcane | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.6% | +4.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.8% | +4.4 |
| Umbra Alice | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.7% | +5.9 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.5% | +4.0 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.0 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 46.7% | -3.2 |
Decklists · 10 from this event
The 10 public Fire Oblation decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 21 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 21 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orb of Sealing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Folded Shadows | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devouring Malice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Infernal Vessel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Abnegation | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reflected Blight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |