Fire Firebloom BurnTier 2
at 12/20 PTM Online Regional
decks
3
(3.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
2-10-0
overall winrate
16.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.2%
avg ELO -3.3 per match
expected value
43.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1270
· median 1234
· range 1187–1390
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
945
Q1 1239
Q3 1442
1694
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
67% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Astra Cleric | 13.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.3% | +2.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 12.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 45.2% | -4.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.7% | -2.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.6% | -3.8 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.8 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.6% | -3.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 46.8% | -3.1 |
| Water Chess | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.5 |
| Arcane | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Umbra Alice | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.1% | -1.4 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Firebloom Burn decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
