Fire Umbra AliceTier 2
at 12/20 PTM Online Regional
decks
2
(2.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
1-5-0
overall winrate
16.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.9%
avg ELO -2.2 per match
expected value
44.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1307
· median 1307
· range 1275–1340
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
945
Q1 1239
Q3 1442
1694
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Astra Cleric | 13.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 12.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +0.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.1% | -6.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.5% | -3.9 |
| Water Chess | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.3% | -1.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Umbra Alice | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.9% | -3.4 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Umbra Alice decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
