Water Tera MageTier 3
at 12/20 PTM Online Regional
decks
1
(1.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
3
0-3-0
overall winrate
0.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.6%
avg ELO -4.0 per match
expected value
40.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1053
· median 1053
· range 1053–1053
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
945
Q1 1239
Q3 1442
1694
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Astra Cleric | 13.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.4% | -4.2 |
| Fire Oblation | 12.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.5% | -4.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.6% | -3.8 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Umbra Alice | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Tera Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
