Water FractalTier 2
at 12/20 PTM Online Regional
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Astra Cleric | 13.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 12.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 46.6% | -3.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.2% | +1.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.7% | -2.2 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.4% | +7.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.9% | +4.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.1% | -4.6 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.6% | -5.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.3 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.2 |
| Water Chess | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.0 |
| Arcane | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Umbra Alice | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.2 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 42 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 42 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orb of Sealing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dredging Streams | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Fascination | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grande Aiguille | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Enchantress | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Yuan Shao, Crown General | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shimmering Refraction | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Idle Thoughts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Mana | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Overlapping Visages | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Purifying Thurible | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Convergent Ruin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Burst Asunder | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Lumina | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nascent Blast | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Dominus Rex | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Barrier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deep Sea Fractal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wand of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Glimmering Refusal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |