12/20 PTM Online Regional

Click an archetype for its head-to-head row vs every other deck. Mirror matches are excluded from winrates and EV. Sparse matchups are shrunk toward 50% via a Beta(2, 2) prior; draws count as 0.5. Adj WR is the same matchup record converted from per-match ELO deltas (skill-controlled). Faded winrate / EV figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — single-event numbers are noisy, so read them as rough.

#	Archetype		Tier	Decks	Share	W-L-D	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1		Wind Astra Cleric	Tier 2	11	13.6%	12-22-10	38.6%	45.1%	45.7%	48.1%	1321	—
2		Fire Oblation	Tier 1	10	12.3%	29-21-4	57.4%	50.9%	52.1%	50.0%	1381	—
3		Wind Seiryuu	Tier 1	7	8.6%	18-18-3	50.0%	50.4%	51.1%	50.5%	1380	—
4		Water Aetherwing	Tier 1	5	6.2%	11-9-3	54.3%	50.9%	52.3%	51.1%	1356	—
5		Fire Umbra Guardian	Tier 1	4	4.9%	9-7-4	55.0%	52.5%	47.5%	49.2%	1424	↑ top
6		Fire Firebloom Burn	Tier 2	3	3.7%	2-10-0	16.7%	42.2%	43.6%	47.7%	1270	↓ low
7		Water Fractal	Tier 2	3	3.7%	5-8-3	40.6%	44.7%	47.4%	48.5%	1432	↑ top
8		Wind Arcane	Tier 2	3	3.7%	8-6-2	56.2%	54.1%	54.7%	52.5%	1376	—
9		Wind Shadowstrike	Tier 2	3	3.7%	7-8-1	46.9%	50.7%	53.7%	52.6%	1320	—
10		Fire Aetherwing	Tier 2	2	2.5%	7-4-1	62.5%	53.5%	55.9%	52.8%	1454	↑ top
11		Fire Aggro	Tier 2	2	2.5%	9-4-1	67.9%	58.1%	51.8%	51.6%	1486	↑ top
12		Fire Crux Lorraine	Tier 2	2	2.5%	6-4-0	60.0%	46.2%	50.0%	47.7%	1340	—
13		Fire Crux Merlin	Tier 2	2	2.5%	5-3-2	60.0%	58.1%	50.9%	52.5%	1331	—
14		Fire Luxem Assassin	Tier 2	2	2.5%	8-4-1	65.4%	49.4%	56.5%	51.2%	1464	↑ top
15		Fire Suzaku	Tier 2	2	2.5%	7-5-0	58.3%	58.0%	53.3%	53.4%	1254	↓ low
16		Fire Umbra Alice	Tier 2	2	2.5%	1-5-0	16.7%	45.9%	44.7%	48.9%	1307	—
17		Horse and Taxes	Tier 2	2	2.5%	6-2-1	72.2%	56.3%	54.8%	52.1%	1333	—
18		Water Allies	Tier 2	2	2.5%	4-6-2	41.7%	46.1%	43.4%	47.1%	1382	—
19		Water Chess	Tier 2	2	2.5%	1-8-1	15.0%	46.5%	36.8%	47.0%	1096	↓ low
20		Water Genbu	Tier 2	2	2.5%	6-3-2	63.6%	54.3%	51.5%	51.0%	1388	—
21		Wind Wakeup Combo	Tier 2	2	2.5%	9-4-1	67.9%	56.5%	58.6%	53.6%	1391	—
22		Arcane	Tier 2	1	1.2%	4-3-0	57.1%	50.5%	52.9%	51.4%	1393	—
23		Fire Crux Mage	Tier 3	1	1.2%	1-2-0	33.3%	39.3%	46.7%	45.0%	1563	↑ top
24		Fire Slimes	Tier 3	1	1.2%	1-3-1	30.0%	42.1%	47.5%	47.2%	1346	—
25		Fire Umbra Ranger	Tier 2	1	1.2%	3-2-1	58.3%	52.9%	48.9%	49.4%	1491	↑ top
26		Umbra Alice	Tier 3	1	1.2%	0-3-0	0.0%	42.2%	40.0%	46.6%	1205	↓ low
27		Water Crux Assassin	Tier 3	1	1.2%	1-2-0	33.3%	52.3%	45.0%	50.5%	1116	↓ low
28		Water Neos	Tier 3	1	1.2%	0-3-0	0.0%	41.2%	40.0%	46.1%	1312	—
29		Water Tera Mage	Tier 3	1	1.2%	0-3-0	0.0%	44.6%	40.0%	47.4%	1053	↓ low
30		Water Umbra Guardian	Tier 3	1	1.2%	2-3-2	42.9%	47.4%	45.5%	47.7%	1412	—
31		Wind Slice & Dice	Tier 2	1	1.2%	5-2-2	66.7%	50.1%	58.3%	51.3%	1539	↑ top

Every player at this event, by final placement — at events with a top cut, cut finishers are ranked by bracket result, then the rest by Swiss standing. The W-L-D record is tallied from recorded matches; byes excluded.

The event's archetypes at a glance — click a tile for its head-to-head row and decklists.

• Wind Astra Cleric 11 decks · 13.6%
• Fire Oblation 10 decks · 12.3%
• Wind Seiryuu 7 decks · 8.6%
• Water Aetherwing 5 decks · 6.2%
• Fire Umbra Guardian 4 decks · 4.9%
• Fire Firebloom Burn 3 decks · 3.7%
• Water Fractal 3 decks · 3.7%
• Wind Arcane 3 decks · 3.7%
• Wind Shadowstrike 3 decks · 3.7%
• Fire Aetherwing 2 decks · 2.5%
• Fire Aggro 2 decks · 2.5%
• Fire Crux Lorraine 2 decks · 2.5%
• Fire Crux Merlin 2 decks · 2.5%
• Fire Luxem Assassin 2 decks · 2.5%
• Fire Suzaku 2 decks · 2.5%
• Fire Umbra Alice 2 decks · 2.5%
• Horse and Taxes 2 decks · 2.5%
• Water Allies 2 decks · 2.5%
• Water Chess 2 decks · 2.5%
• Water Genbu 2 decks · 2.5%
• Wind Wakeup Combo 2 decks · 2.5%
• Arcane 1 deck · 1.2%
• Fire Crux Mage 1 deck · 1.2%
• Fire Slimes 1 deck · 1.2%
• Fire Umbra Ranger 1 deck · 1.2%
• Umbra Alice 1 deck · 1.2%
• Water Crux Assassin 1 deck · 1.2%
• Water Neos 1 deck · 1.2%
• Water Tera Mage 1 deck · 1.2%
• Water Umbra Guardian 1 deck · 1.2%
• Wind Slice & Dice 1 deck · 1.2%