Fire AggroTier 2
at Grex Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 23.8% | 11 | 4-7-0 | 36.4% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -3.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 74.0% | +17.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 65.9% | +15.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.9% | -22.5 |
| Wind Arcane | 4.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.9% | +16.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.6% | +6.3 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.1 |
| Fire Suited | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.4% | -6.4 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.4 |
| Water Allies | 2.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 49.4% | -0.6 |
| Water Fractal | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 59.2% | +8.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.0% | -17.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.3% | -4.3 |
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 24 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 24 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Molten Echo | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veteran Blazebearer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gleaming Smolder | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mortal Ambition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Demolition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flickering Afterglow | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mote Sear | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tweedledum, Rattled Dancer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| March Hare, Mottled Host | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |