Fire OblationTier 1
at Grex Store Championship
decks
10
(23.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
36
16-16-4
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.4%
avg ELO -0.2 per match
expected value
51.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1339
· median 1322
· range 1113–1584
(10 pilots with an ELO rating)
1107
Q1 1229
Q3 1426
1624
30% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
10% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 16.7% | 11 | 7-4-0 | 63.6% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +3.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.5% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 59.7% | +7.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 39.5% | -7.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.8% | -18.0 |
| Wind Arcane | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.8% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.3% | +3.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.4% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 20.0% | -22.4 |
| Fire Suited | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.8 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.4 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.7 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.3% | +12.8 |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.1% | +5.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.7% | -8.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.3% | +5.1 |
Decklists · 10 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 6 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 6 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Library Witch, Nocturne's Oblivion, Topsy Decree. Losers more often ran: Fiery Interference, Undying Dreams, Abnegation.
Library Witch
Winning decks ran 3.7
copies on average,
losing decks 1.7.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Nocturne's Oblivion
Winning decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Topsy Decree
Winning decks ran 3.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Spirit of Fire
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Heavenly Guide
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Cremation Ritual
Winning decks ran 3.7
copies on average,
losing decks 2.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Fiery Interference
Losing decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Undying Dreams
Losing decks ran 4.0
copies on average,
winning decks 2.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Abnegation
Losing decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
winning decks 1.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Reflected Blight
Losing decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Devouring Malice
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Spirit of Serene Fire
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Show all 77 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 57 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Library Witch | +1.00 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | +1.00 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +0.83 | 5 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fiery Interference | -0.83 | 0 | 5 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.67 | 4 | 0 | 2 | |
| Undying Dreams | -0.67 | 0 | 4 | 2 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.67 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.67 | 4 | 0 | 2 | |
| Grim Pastiche | +0.67 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Abnegation | -0.67 | 0 | 4 | 2 | |
| Reflected Blight | -0.67 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Devouring Malice | -0.50 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 3 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | -0.50 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 4 | 1 | 1 | |
| Demolition | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 2 | |
| Umbra Sight | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 4 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 2 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Golden Gambit | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Golden Pawn | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Overpowering Defense | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Meltdown | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Condemned Trinket | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Undeniable Truth | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Mirage's Grave | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Liminal Guide | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Remnant of Will | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ticket to the Afterlife | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slip Away | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Manxome Armoire | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Lost Promises | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Maledictum Vitae | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 5 | |
| Vanish from Sight | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.17 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mantle of the Abyss | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grande Sonnerie | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Ciel, Omenbringer | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Flamewreath Call | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Profane Bindings | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Alice, Phantom Monarch | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Alice, Distorted Queen | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Potion of Healing | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ducal Seal | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamme Sorcel | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Polishing Flourish | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Feu Awakening | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Folded Shadows | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 |