Fire Crux MageTier 2
at Grex Store Championship
decks
3
(7.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15
6-8-1
overall winrate
43.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
39.5%
avg ELO -4.2 per match
expected value
48.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1298
· median 1225
· range 1107–1563
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1107
Q1 1229
Q3 1426
1624
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
67% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 23.8% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 60.5% | +7.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 16.7% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 26.0% | -17.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.8% | -12.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.5% | +4.1 |
| Wind Arcane | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.8% | +20.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.5% | -16.8 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.2% | -25.3 |
| Water Allies | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.3% | -18.6 |
| Water Fractal | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.7% | +14.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
