Fire Luxem AssassinTier 1
at Grex Store Championship
decks
3
(7.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
5-3-1
overall winrate
61.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
41.9%
avg ELO -3.8 per match
expected value
54.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1517
· median 1525
· range 1489–1539
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1107
Q1 1229
Q3 1426
1624
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 23.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 16.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 34.1% | -15.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +16.9 |
| Wind Arcane | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.5 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 23.3% | -25.6 |
| Water Allies | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.7% | +4.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
