Water AlliesTier 2
at Grex Store Championship
decks
1
(2.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
4-1-1
overall winrate
75.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.8%
avg ELO +2.0 per match
expected value
58.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1495
· median 1495
· range 1495–1495
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1107
Q1 1229
Q3 1426
1624
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 23.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 16.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 50.6% | +0.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.8% | +4.5 |
| Fire Suited | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.4% | -23.3 |
| Water Fractal | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Allies decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
