Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at Grex Store Championship
decks
1
(2.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
3-2-1
overall winrate
58.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.0%
avg ELO +4.3 per match
expected value
56.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
55.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1312
· median 1312
· range 1312–1312
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1107
Q1 1229
Q3 1426
1624
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 23.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 16.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.6% | +6.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 4.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.3% | +6.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -9.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
