EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Capybara Cards Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Fire Luxem Assassin

58.5%

5.1% share · 9 matches

1st

Water Luxem Assassin

61.0%

2.6% share · 6 matches

2.6% share · 4 matches

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Water Luxem Assassin	1	2.6%	6	100.0%	69.9%	61.0%	56.1%	1388	↑ top
2	Fire Luxem Assassin	2	5.1%	9	66.7%	59.3%	58.5%	56.6%	1342	—
3	Wind Wakeup Combo	1	2.6%	4	75.0%	61.9%	58.2%	59.6%	1326	—
4	Fire Crux Mage	4	10.3%	18	61.1%	53.2%	54.5%	52.5%	1307	—
5	Wind Allies	2	5.1%	10	60.0%	52.6%	54.0%	53.2%	1369	↑ top
6	Fire Crux Lorraine	1	2.6%	7	71.4%	72.8%	52.9%	56.0%	1295	—
7	Fire Umbra Guardian	1	2.6%	6	41.7%	33.9%	52.9%	48.2%	1519	↑ top
8	Water Aetherwing	2	5.1%	11	59.1%	56.0%	52.2%	53.1%	1371	↑ top
9	Fire Oblation	2	5.1%	10	45.0%	57.1%	51.5%	54.9%	1224	↓ low
10	Wind Dawn of Ashes	1	2.6%	6	41.7%	38.5%	51.4%	49.0%	1237	↓ low
11	Fire Umbra Ranger	1	2.6%	6	58.3%	66.9%	51.1%	55.4%	1164	↓ low
12	Wind Astra Cleric	1	2.6%	4	50.0%	62.9%	48.6%	53.9%	1075	↓ low
13	Fire Umbra Alice	3	7.7%	14	46.4%	36.3%	47.8%	44.3%	1308	—
14	Wind Shadowstrike	4	10.3%	17	41.2%	46.6%	47.7%	50.6%	1280	—
15	Fire Aggro	3	7.7%	17	44.1%	47.1%	47.5%	48.8%	1368	↑ top
16	Wind Seiryuu	6	15.4%	21	40.5%	44.3%	47.4%	47.4%	1310	—
17	Water Genbu	1	2.6%	4	25.0%	44.9%	45.0%	48.3%	1234	↓ low
18	Fire Aetherwing	1	2.6%	3	33.3%	50.2%	43.3%	47.4%	1235	↓ low
19	Wind Arcane	1	2.6%	3	0.0%	42.1%	37.1%	45.3%	1142	↓ low
20	Fire Exia	2	5.1%	6	16.7%	15.7%	35.6%	28.8%	1403	↑ top