← [TCG] League PTM Online Grand Archive Regional NA 2/15/2026
Fire AliceTier 3
at [TCG] League PTM Online Grand Archive Regional NA 2/15/2026
decks
1
(1.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
1-3-1
overall winrate
30.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.4%
avg ELO -2.6 per match
expected value
42.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1292
· median 1292
· range 1292–1292
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1049
Q1 1269
Q3 1426
1689
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 7.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 46.3% | -3.6 |
| Horse and Taxes | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.0% | +3.2 |
| Water Genbu | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 1.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -1.7 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Alice | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Alice decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
