← [TCG] League PTM Online Grand Archive Regional NA 2/15/2026

Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1

at [TCG] League PTM Online Grand Archive Regional NA 2/15/2026

decks
5 (5.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
20 11-8-1
overall winrate
57.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.3% avg ELO +0.9 per match
expected value
51.2% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.9% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1405 · median 1423 · range 1171–1593 (5 pilots with an ELO rating)
1049 Q1 1269 Q3 1426 1689
40% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 20% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Wind Seiryuu 8.6% 3 0-3-0 0.0% 28.6% 42.0% -6.0
Wind Shadowstrike 8.6% 0
Water Fractal 7.5% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 61.1% +10.7
Horse and Taxes 6.5% 0
Water Aetherwing 5.4% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 50.7% +0.7
Fire Firebloom Burn 4.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 53.5% +5.7
Fire Suited 4.3% 0
Water Genbu 4.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 46.9% -4.9
Water Ravishing Mill 4.3% 0
Wind Wakeup Combo 4.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 52.4% +3.9
Fire Aggro 3.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 55.7% +9.1
Fire Crux Lorraine 3.2% 0
Fire Luxem Assassin 3.2% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 43.2% -6.5
Wind Astra Cleric 3.2% 0
Fire Crux Mage 2.2% 0
Fire Oblation 2.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 54.1% +6.5
Fire Slimes 2.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 53.3% +5.3
Water Allies 2.2% 0
Wind Byakko 2.2% 0
Fire Aetherwing 1.1% 0
Fire Alice 1.1% 0
Fire Tera Cleric 1.1% 0
Fire Tera Diao Chan 1.1% 0
Fire Tera Mage 1.1% 0
Fire Umbra Diana 1.1% 0
Water Crux Mage 1.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 52.1% +3.4
Water Exia 1.1% 0
Water Slimes 1.1% 0
Water Tera Mage 1.1% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 43.8% -9.9
Water Umbra Alice 1.1% 0
Wind Allies 1.1% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 46.0% -6.4
Wind Arcane 1.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 51.8% +3.0
Wind Neos 1.1% 0
Wind Razorgale 1.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 56.6% +10.5
Decklists · 5 from this event

The 5 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 51 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 51 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Devastating Blow +1.00 2 0 0
Lost Providence +1.00 2 0 0
Cremation Ritual +1.00 2 0 0
Library Witch +1.00 2 0 0
Topsy Decree +1.00 2 0 0
Resolute Stand -0.50 0 1 1
Spirit of Fire +0.50 1 0 0
Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin -0.50 0 1 0
Staggering Strike +0.50 1 0 0
Viridian Protective Trinket -0.50 0 1 0
Undeniable Truth +0.50 1 0 0
Feu Awakening +0.50 1 0 1
Flamme Sorcel -0.50 0 1 1
Heavenly Guide -0.50 0 1 1
Spirelle, Schwartz Queen +0.50 1 0 0
Rictus Tiding -0.50 0 1 0
Umbra Sight +0.50 1 0 0
Overlapping Visages -0.50 0 1 1
Backup Charger +0.50 1 0 1
Gentle Respite -0.50 0 1 1
Inert Sword -0.50 0 1 0
Unmake Duality -0.50 0 1 0
Turbo Charge -0.50 0 1 0
Flamewreath Call +0.50 1 0 0
The Looking Glass -0.50 0 1 0
Spirit of Serene Fire -0.50 0 1 1
Beguiling Coup -0.50 0 1 1
Abnegation +0.50 1 0 1
Tariff Ring +0.50 1 0 0
Carter, Synthetic Reaper -0.50 0 1 1
Portentous Tanggu +0.50 1 0 0
Siphoning Fractal -0.50 0 1 0
Heavy Swing +0.50 1 0 0
Nocturne's Oblivion -0.50 0 1 0
Grande Aiguille +0.50 1 0 0
Undying Dreams -0.50 0 1 0
Grand Crusader's Ring -0.50 0 1 0
Leporine Masque -0.50 0 1 0
Coronation Ceremony +0.50 1 0 0
Three of Hearts +0.50 1 0 0
Butler's Augury -0.50 0 1 0
Ombreux Chevalier -0.50 0 1 0
Infernal Vessel -0.50 0 1 0
Varuckan Acolyte -0.50 0 1 0
Profane Bindings -0.50 0 1 0
Impact Hammer -0.50 0 1 0
Peaceful Reunion +0.00 1 1 0
Stalwart Shieldmate +0.00 1 1 0
Fast Cure +0.00 1 1 0
Crystallized Destiny +0.00 1 1 0
Safeguard Amulet +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/42591/archetypes/Fire Umbra Guardian