← [TCG] League PTM Online Grand Archive Regional NA 2/15/2026

Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1

at [TCG] League PTM Online Grand Archive Regional NA 2/15/2026

decks
8 (8.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
41 17-17-7
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.7% avg ELO -0.8 per match
expected value
49.7% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.0% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1374 · median 1359 · range 1250–1474 (8 pilots with an ELO rating)
1049 Q1 1269 Q3 1426 1689
38% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 12% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Wind Seiryuu 8.6% 6 3-2-1 58.3% 55.0% 51.8% +0.9
Water Fractal 7.5% 5 1-2-2 40.0% 44.4% 47.2% -1.6
Horse and Taxes 6.5% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 51.5% +1.5
Fire Umbra Guardian 5.4% 0
Water Aetherwing 5.4% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 45.8% -3.2
Fire Firebloom Burn 4.3% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 48.4% -1.6
Fire Suited 4.3% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 47.1% -2.7
Water Genbu 4.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 51.6% +2.6
Water Ravishing Mill 4.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 47.0% -4.8
Wind Wakeup Combo 4.3% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 46.2% -2.9
Fire Aggro 3.2% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 49.8% -0.2
Fire Crux Lorraine 3.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 55.9% +9.4
Fire Luxem Assassin 3.2% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 40.9% -8.8
Wind Astra Cleric 3.2% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 50.2% +0.3
Fire Crux Mage 2.2% 0
Fire Oblation 2.2% 0
Fire Slimes 2.2% 0
Water Allies 2.2% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 47.0% -4.8
Wind Byakko 2.2% 0
Fire Aetherwing 1.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 52.4% +3.9
Fire Alice 1.1% 0
Fire Tera Cleric 1.1% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 48.0% -3.2
Fire Tera Diao Chan 1.1% 0
Fire Tera Mage 1.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 52.8% +4.5
Fire Umbra Diana 1.1% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 50.1% +0.1
Water Crux Mage 1.1% 0
Water Exia 1.1% 0
Water Slimes 1.1% 0
Water Tera Mage 1.1% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 43.1% -11.0
Water Umbra Alice 1.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 53.9% +6.2
Wind Allies 1.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 53.1% +4.9
Wind Arcane 1.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 54.5% +7.3
Wind Neos 1.1% 0
Wind Razorgale 1.1% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 47.8% -3.5
Decklists · 8 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 29 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 29 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Calming Breeze -1.00 0 2 0
Ensnaring Fumes +1.00 2 0 0
Lost Providence +1.00 2 0 0
Eternal Magistrate -1.00 0 2 0
Abnegation -1.00 0 2 0
Scatter Essence +1.00 2 0 0
Topsy Decree +1.00 2 0 0
Diablerie -1.00 0 2 0
Scout the Land -1.00 0 2 0
Stifling Trap -1.00 0 2 0
Grand Crusader's Ring -1.00 0 2 0
Umbra Sight -1.00 0 2 0
Nullifying Lantern +1.00 2 0 0
Zephyr +1.00 2 0 0
Nullifying Mirror -1.00 0 2 0
Dream Fairy +1.00 2 0 0
Censer of Restful Peace -1.00 0 2 0
Innervate Agility +1.00 2 0 0
Veiling Breeze -0.50 0 1 1
Verdigris Decree +0.50 1 0 0
Fairy Whispers -0.50 0 1 1
Regal Inquisition +0.50 1 0 1
Slice and Dice -0.50 0 1 1
Quicksilver Grail +0.50 1 0 0
Tariff Ring -0.50 0 1 1
Spirelle, Schwartz Queen +0.50 1 0 0
Tempest Downfall +0.50 1 0 0
Blinding Orb +0.50 1 0 0
Crystallized Destiny +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/42591/archetypes/Wind Shadowstrike