← [TCG] League PTM Online Grand Archive Regional NA 2/15/2026
Water AetherwingTier 2
at [TCG] League PTM Online Grand Archive Regional NA 2/15/2026
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 43.0% | -6.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.2% | +3.2 |
| Water Fractal | 7.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.3% | -2.6 |
| Horse and Taxes | 6.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 44.3% | -5.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 49.3% | -0.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.3% | +8.9 |
| Fire Suited | 4.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.0% | -3.8 |
| Water Genbu | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.8% | -6.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +0.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.7 |
| Water Allies | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.8% | -6.8 |
| Wind Byakko | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.6 |
| Fire Alice | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.5 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.0% | +6.4 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Alice | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 30 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 30 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ranger Boots | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Aetheric Calibration | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Stolen Chance | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reveal the Hidden | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seeker's Aetherwing | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Dissuading Aether | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Overlapping Visages | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chained Charge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Refreshing Charge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undercurrent Vantage | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Palvor Sword | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diana, Judgment's Arrow | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drown in Aether | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cell Sharpshooter | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mana's Cascade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Take Aim | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mad Hatter, Morose Heritor | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |