← [TCG] League PTM Online Grand Archive Regional NA 2/15/2026
Fire Crux MageTier 2
at [TCG] League PTM Online Grand Archive Regional NA 2/15/2026
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 7.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.1% | -3.0 |
| Horse and Taxes | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.4 |
| Fire Suited | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 43.8% | -6.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.1% | -3.1 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Alice | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.7 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.5 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Alice | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 19 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 19 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavenly Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sacred Engulfment | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nimue, Cursed Touch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Protect Her At All Costs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flared Iridescence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |