← [TCG] League PTM Online Grand Archive Regional NA 2/15/2026
Water AlliesTier 2
at [TCG] League PTM Online Grand Archive Regional NA 2/15/2026
decks
2
(2.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
4-6-1
overall winrate
40.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.7%
avg ELO -1.0 per match
expected value
48.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1394
· median 1394
· range 1388–1400
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1049
Q1 1269
Q3 1426
1689
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.0% | +2.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.8 |
| Water Fractal | 7.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 45.7% | -4.1 |
| Horse and Taxes | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 46.4% | -3.4 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.9% | -6.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Alice | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Alice | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.1% | +5.0 |
| Wind Allies | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
