← [TCG] League PTM Online Grand Archive Regional NA 2/15/2026
Water FractalTier 1
at [TCG] League PTM Online Grand Archive Regional NA 2/15/2026
decks
7
(7.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
47
28-14-5
overall winrate
64.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.9%
avg ELO +0.7 per match
expected value
53.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1441
· median 1432
· range 1265–1652
(7 pilots with an ELO rating)
1049
Q1 1269
Q3 1426
1689
57% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
14% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.6% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 51.8% | +1.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.6% | 5 | 2-1-2 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 52.8% | +1.6 |
| Horse and Taxes | 6.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 45.4% | -4.4 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.9% | -10.7 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.7% | +2.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 4.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +1.0 |
| Water Genbu | 4.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 45.9% | -3.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 49.7% | -0.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.3% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 51.2% | +0.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 54.6% | +4.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.9% | +3.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 54.3% | +4.1 |
| Wind Byakko | 2.2% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.4% | +4.3 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Alice | 1.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 53.7% | +3.6 |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.6% | +4.2 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.0% | +6.3 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.5 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.2% | +5.1 |
| Water Umbra Alice | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.8% | +6.1 |
| Wind Allies | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.3 |
