← 18th Jan Mox Saga PTM Regional
Fire Crux MageTier 2
at 18th Jan Mox Saga PTM Regional
decks
17
(14.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
87
35-46-6
overall winrate
43.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.4%
avg ELO -2.2 per match
expected value
48.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1266
· median 1257
· range 1098–1518
(17 pilots with an ELO rating)
1059
Q1 1179
Q3 1340
1730
24% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
24% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.7% | 10 | 6-2-2 | 70.0% | 64.3% | 65.0% | +6.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.3% | 11 | 6-5-0 | 54.5% | 53.3% | 48.7% | -0.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.5% | 8 | 1-6-1 | 18.8% | 29.2% | 33.4% | -8.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.8% | 8 | 4-4-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.2% | -2.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.8% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +0.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.0% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 40.4% | -5.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.6% | -11.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.8 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 45.0% | -3.7 |
| Water Fractal | 3.3% | 6 | 4-1-1 | 75.0% | 65.0% | 64.8% | +7.9 |
| Water Genbu | 3.3% | 6 | 1-5-0 | 16.7% | 30.0% | 29.0% | -11.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 1.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.2% | -6.6 |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 1.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.8% | -3.6 |
| Water Astra Diana | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.1% | +13.5 |
| Diao Chan | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.6 |
| Fire Exia | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.1 |
| Fire Suited | 0.8% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 27.7% | -16.7 |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.4% | +5.5 |
| Water Allies | 0.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.9% | -14.5 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.3 |
| Water Chess | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -16.9 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 60.4% | +10.0 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.9% | -14.5 |
| Wind Allies | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 17 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 7 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 7 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Stalwart Shieldmate, Orb of Sealing, Sudden Steel. Losers more often ran: Incarnate Majesty, Gentle Respite, Turbo Charge.
Stalwart Shieldmate
Winning decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
losing decks 2.0.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Orb of Sealing
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.1.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Sudden Steel
Winning decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
losing decks 1.1.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Cremation Ritual
Winning decks ran 3.6
copies on average,
losing decks 3.3.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Topsy Decree
Winning decks ran 2.9
copies on average,
losing decks 2.7.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Reduce to Ash
Winning decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Incarnate Majesty
Losing decks ran 3.3
copies on average,
winning decks 2.7.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Gentle Respite
Losing decks ran 3.7
copies on average,
winning decks 3.4.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Turbo Charge
Losing decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
winning decks 1.3.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Safeguard Amulet
Losing decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Incapacitate
Losing decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Crux Sight
Losing decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Show all 51 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 31 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incarnate Majesty | -0.57 | 1 | 5 | 1 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.43 | 4 | 1 | 2 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.43 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Meltdown | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 3 | |
| Sudden Steel | +0.29 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 3 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 3 | |
| Suffocating Ash | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.29 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +0.29 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Flared Iridescence | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |
| Crux Sight | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nimue, Cursed Touch | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Three of Hearts | +0.14 | 3 | 2 | 2 | |
| Inert Sword | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 6 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 4 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sacred Engulfment | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 6 | |
| Library Witch | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 6 | |
| Stolen Chance | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Overlapping Visages | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Palvor Sword | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +0.14 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tome of Sorcery | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Protect Her At All Costs | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Unmake Duality | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Reprogram | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Immolation Trap | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |