← 18th Jan Mox Saga PTM Regional
Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2
at 18th Jan Mox Saga PTM Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 14.2% | 10 | 2-6-2 | 30.0% | 35.7% | 35.0% | -6.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.3% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 45.7% | -2.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.5% | 13 | 4-7-2 | 38.5% | 41.2% | 41.2% | -3.7 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.9% | +7.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 30.8% | -18.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.0% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 47.2% | -1.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.2% | 8 | 6-1-1 | 81.2% | 70.8% | 70.8% | +10.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 53.3% | +3.2 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.3% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 58.4% | +5.4 |
| Water Fractal | 3.3% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.3% | -4.3 |
| Water Genbu | 3.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.3% | -15.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 32.1% | -28.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 1.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.1% | +11.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 40.7% | -7.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Water Astra Diana | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -11.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.7% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.0% | +3.8 |
| Diao Chan | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.6% | +0.9 |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 30.3% | -18.9 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.8% | +25.2 |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 14 from this event
The 14 public Wind Shadowstrike decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 6 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 6 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Regal Inquisition, Spellward Scepter, Scatter Essence. Losers more often ran: Stifling Trap, Tariff Ring, Verdigris Decree.
Show all 43 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 27 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Veiling Breeze | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 3 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 4 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
| Stifling Trap | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 2 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Verdigris Decree | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Fairy Whispers | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mastermind Scheme | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Purifying Thurible | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 5 | |
| Dream Fairy | -0.17 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Topsy Decree | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rictus Tiding | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Royal Oathguard | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Surreptitious Scheme | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scout the Land | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Calming Breeze | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Lost Providence | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Abnegation | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Reclaim | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Tempest Downfall | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Slice and Dice | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Zephyr | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Penumbral Waltz | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |