← 18th Jan Mox Saga PTM Regional
Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at 18th Jan Mox Saga PTM Regional
decks
4
(3.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
20
10-10-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.7%
avg ELO -2.1 per match
expected value
50.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1365
· median 1358
· range 1194–1550
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1059
Q1 1179
Q3 1340
1730
75% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 14.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.0% | +3.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.7% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.6% | -5.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -1.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.1% | -8.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.2% | -2.7 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.4 |
| Water Fractal | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 45.0% | -4.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 1.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.3% | -17.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diao Chan | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.6 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.5 |
| Water Chess | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.6 |
| Wind Allies | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
