← 18th Jan Mox Saga PTM Regional
Wind Astra ClericTier 2
at 18th Jan Mox Saga PTM Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 14.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.4% | +11.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.7% | 8 | 1-6-1 | 18.8% | 29.2% | 29.2% | -10.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.0% | +10.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.5% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.0% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 28.5% | -16.1 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +0.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.8% | +2.7 |
| Water Fractal | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diao Chan | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.0 |
| Fire Suited | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.7 |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.3 |
| Water Chess | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 24 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 24 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orb of Sealing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Calming Breeze | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Lucent Arbiter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ravaging Tempest | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spellshield: Astra | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scry the Stars | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cosmic Alignment | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orbiting Cosmos | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tricastles of Lucenia | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Meteor Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Buried Grief | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Horticounter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |