← 18th Jan Mox Saga PTM Regional
Water Crux MageTier 2
at 18th Jan Mox Saga PTM Regional
decks
1
(0.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
5-1-1
overall winrate
78.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
69.1%
avg ELO +9.6 per match
expected value
54.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
55.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1338
· median 1338
· range 1338–1338
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1059
Q1 1179
Q3 1340
1730
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 14.2% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 39.6% | -10.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 69.7% | +18.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.4 |
| Water Astra Diana | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diao Chan | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
