← 18th Jan Mox Saga PTM Regional
Water GenbuTier 2
at 18th Jan Mox Saga PTM Regional
decks
4
(3.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
24
16-5-3
overall winrate
72.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
65.3%
avg ELO +5.7 per match
expected value
59.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
58.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1387
· median 1332
· range 1196–1688
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1059
Q1 1179
Q3 1340
1730
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 14.2% | 6 | 5-1-0 | 83.3% | 70.0% | 71.0% | +11.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.7% | +15.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 53.5% | +3.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.8% | +6.1 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.8% | +10.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 52.0% | +1.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.7% | -13.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.3 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 55.0% | +4.8 |
| Water Fractal | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diao Chan | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.8 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.5% | +5.6 |
| Water Chess | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.2% | +4.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Genbu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
