← 18th Jan Mox Saga PTM Regional
Fire Luxem AssassinTier 2
at 18th Jan Mox Saga PTM Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 14.2% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -0.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 69.2% | +18.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.3% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.3% | -1.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.5% | 5 | 0-4-1 | 10.0% | 27.8% | 23.8% | -15.1 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.0% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.0% | +1.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.2% | +2.2 |
| Water Genbu | 3.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 48.0% | -1.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 1.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.0% | -11.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.7% | +11.2 |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 1.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 52.3% | +2.2 |
| Water Astra Diana | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.1% | -11.4 |
| Diao Chan | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.4% | +21.5 |
| Fire Exia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.5 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 44.3% | -5.4 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 7 from this event
The 7 public Fire Luxem Assassin decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 26 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 26 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Insignia of the Corhazi | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Return to the Archive | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spurn to Ash | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lost Providence | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Waited Accord | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Topsy Decree | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Undeniable Truth | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Oneiric Key | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peaceful Reunion | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sunblessed Gazelle | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Juggle Knives | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |