← 18th Jan Mox Saga PTM Regional
Fire Firebloom BurnTier 2
at 18th Jan Mox Saga PTM Regional
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 14.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 67.9% | +28.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.3% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 41.7% | -5.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.3 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diao Chan | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.7% | +21.9 |
| Fire Exia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.2% | +21.1 |
| Water Chess | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 66.5% | +26.4 |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 37 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 37 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashwick Cremator | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scathing Seminary | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ignis Deus | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Demolition | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sigil of Budding Embers | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Infernal Vessel | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Rapid Combustion | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Acolyte of Cultivation | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tether in Flames | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Ravenous Pyre | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Necklace of Foresight | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Insight | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Impact Hammer | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Volda, Smolder's Spite | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fanatical Devotee | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |