← Atelier Tabletop Brewspace Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
Fire Crux LorraineTier 1
at Atelier Tabletop Brewspace Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
decks
2
(5.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
6-6-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.9%
avg ELO +0.8 per match
expected value
51.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1306
· median 1306
· range 1280–1331
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1114
Q1 1260
Q3 1446
1668
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.8% | +5.1 |
| Water Genbu | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.4% | +19.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -10.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.6 |
| Water Fractal | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -16.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -16.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Beast | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Wind Vanitas | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.5% | +5.6 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.8% | -6.8 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
