← Atelier Tabletop Brewspace Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
Fire Crux MageTier 2
at Atelier Tabletop Brewspace Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
decks
4
(10.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
24
8-13-3
overall winrate
39.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
41.1%
avg ELO -3.3 per match
expected value
47.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1271
· median 1306
· range 1125–1348
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1114
Q1 1260
Q3 1446
1668
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Genbu | 10.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.0% | -1.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.7% | +7.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +0.8 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.3% | -18.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.7% | -11.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.2% | -5.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.3% | -5.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 5.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.4% | -4.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 51.6% | +1.6 |
| Beast | 2.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -1.8 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
| Fire Wind Vanitas | 2.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.3% | -12.2 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 2.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.5 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
