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Water FractalTier 2
at Atelier Tabletop Brewspace Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.6% | +4.5 |
| Water Genbu | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.4 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.6% | +3.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.4% | +21.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Beast | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.5 |
| Fire Wind Vanitas | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.3 |
| Wind Allies | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 42 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 42 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Fascination | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sablemere, Warden's Grip | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tweedledee, Contrarian Poet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystalline Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Return to the Archive | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Water | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chill to the Bone | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Enchantress | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Temptation's Facade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shimmering Refraction | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nico, Rapture's Embrace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Burst Asunder | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shield | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ravishing Finale | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nico, Whiplash Allure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Magebane Lash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wand of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |