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at Atelier Tabletop Brewspace Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.0% | +1.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.0% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 49.2% | -0.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 64.0% | +10.4 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.5% | +13.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.6% | -19.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.7% | +6.0 |
| Water Fractal | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -1.4 |
| Beast | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.3% | +5.3 |
| Fire Wind Vanitas | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.4 |
| Wind Allies | 2.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -1.4 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.0 |
| Wind Diana | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 44.9% | -4.9 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 11 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 11 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revitalizing Cleanse | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Pelagic Fatestone | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |