← Atelier Tabletop Brewspace Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at Atelier Tabletop Brewspace Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
decks
1
(2.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
3-2-3
overall winrate
56.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.9%
avg ELO -1.5 per match
expected value
51.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1392
· median 1392
· range 1392–1392
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1114
Q1 1260
Q3 1446
1668
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.8 |
| Water Genbu | 10.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.7% | -5.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.8 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.4% | -5.7 |
| Beast | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Wind Vanitas | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.4% | -5.7 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.3 |
| Wind Diana | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
