← Atelier Tabletop Brewspace Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at Atelier Tabletop Brewspace Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
decks
2
(5.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
13
3-6-4
overall winrate
38.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.1%
avg ELO -1.6 per match
expected value
45.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1308
· median 1308
· range 1168–1449
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1114
Q1 1260
Q3 1446
1668
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 41.8% | -6.1 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.6% | -21.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 45.9% | -4.0 |
| Beast | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.5 |
| Fire Wind Vanitas | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.0% | +3.2 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 2.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -1.0 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.3 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
