← Regionals @ The Banish Zone 2/28
Fire OblationTier 1
at Regionals @ The Banish Zone 2/28
decks
4
(5.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
28
17-10-1
overall winrate
62.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.5%
avg ELO +3.1 per match
expected value
55.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1457
· median 1462
· range 1247–1656
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1054
Q1 1246
Q3 1419
1656
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.4% | +2.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.5% | +11.0 |
| Wind Allies | 6.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.6% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 41.3% | -5.6 |
| Water Fractal | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.4% | +9.0 |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.1% | +12.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.9% | -19.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 2.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.2% | -1.8 |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.0% | +15.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.8% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +0.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.1 |
| Fire Exia | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Genbu | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Alice | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.5 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +7.9 |
| Wind Byakko | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.7 |
| Wind Slimes | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Oblation decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
