← Regionals @ The Banish Zone 2/28

Wind AlliesTier 2

at Regionals @ The Banish Zone 2/28

decks
5 (6.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
24 9-14-1
overall winrate
39.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.4% avg ELO -2.5 per match
expected value
48.1% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.4% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1298 · median 1293 · range 1091–1453 (5 pilots with an ELO rating)
1054 Q1 1246 Q3 1419 1656
40% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 40% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Wind Seiryuu 9.7% 3 1-1-1 50.0% 50.0% 57.5% +5.6
Fire Crux Lorraine 6.9% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.9% +14.2
Wind Shadowstrike 6.9% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 45.4% -4.4
Fire Oblation 5.6% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 42.3% -12.3
Water Aetherwing 5.6% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 43.9% -5.9
Water Fractal 5.6% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 55.2% +3.9
Fire Umbra Guardian 4.2% 0
Horse and Taxes 4.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.9% +15.8
Water Genbu 4.2% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 41.0% -8.7
Water Ravishing Mill 4.2% 0
Fire Firebloom Burn 2.8% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 54.8% +7.7
Fire Luxem Assassin 2.8% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 53.7% +5.9
Fire Slimes 2.8% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 39.8% -16.4
Water Crux Assassin 2.8% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 37.1% -20.7
Water Tera Mage 2.8% 0
Wind Astra Cleric 2.8% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 35.3% -14.1
Fire Aggro 1.4% 0
Fire Crux Mage 1.4% 0
Fire Exia 1.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.6% +12.1
Fire Genbu 1.4% 0
Fire Suzaku 1.4% 0
Fire Tera Mage 1.4% 0
Water Umbra Guardian 1.4% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 36.2% -22.0
Wind Alice 1.4% 0
Wind Arcane 1.4% 0
Wind Byakko 1.4% 0
Wind Lorraine 1.4% 0
Wind Slimes 1.4% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 46.2% -6.0
Wind Umbra Ranger 1.4% 0
Wind Wakeup Combo 1.4% 0
Decklists · 5 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 51 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 51 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Reconnaissance Scout -0.50 0 1 0
Reclaim +0.50 1 0 1
Legion's Wingspan -0.50 0 1 0
Aesan Protector +0.50 1 0 1
Longtail Grovesward +0.50 1 0 1
Flash Grenade -0.50 0 1 0
Ranger Boots -0.50 0 1 0
Rose, Eternal Paragon +0.50 1 0 1
Perse, Relentless Raptor -0.50 0 1 0
Diana, Aether Dilettante -0.50 0 1 0
Viridian Protective Trinket +0.50 1 0 1
Staggering Strike -0.50 0 1 0
Displace +0.50 1 0 1
Lurking Assailant +0.50 1 0 1
Veiling Breeze -0.50 0 1 1
Imperial Rifleman -0.50 0 1 0
Liu Bei, Oathkeeper -0.50 0 1 0
Aether's Embrace -0.50 0 1 0
Fellowship's Gale -0.50 0 1 0
Extortion Scheme +0.50 1 0 1
Tempest Downfall +0.50 1 0 1
Sword of Seeking +0.50 1 0 1
Rallied Advance +0.50 1 0 1
Razorgale Calling +0.50 1 0 1
Smoke Bombs +0.50 1 0 1
Windmill Engineer +0.50 1 0 1
Clarent, Reimagined +0.50 1 0 1
Nullifying Lantern -0.50 0 1 0
Andronika, Eternal Herald +0.50 1 0 1
Second Wind +0.50 1 0 1
Teasing Aerocharge -0.50 0 1 0
Ornamental Greatsword +0.50 1 0 1
Favorable Winds -0.50 0 1 0
Veiled Dash -0.50 0 1 0
Poisoned Coating Oil +0.50 1 0 1
Huang Zhong, Unerring Aim -0.50 0 1 0
Safeguard Amulet -0.50 0 1 0
Four of Spades +0.50 1 0 1
Whisperwind Compass -0.50 0 1 0
Charged Hunter -0.50 0 1 0
Tariff Ring -0.50 0 1 0
Clarent, Sword of Peace +0.50 1 0 1
Brisk Windtrotter +0.50 1 0 1
Lorraine, Wandering Warrior +0.50 1 0 1
Zephyr +0.50 1 0 1
Dream Fairy +0.50 1 0 1
Scatter Essence -0.50 0 1 0
Winbless Rangefinder -0.50 0 1 0
Innervate Agility +0.50 1 0 1
Skirting Step -0.50 0 1 0
Seeker's Aetherwing -0.50 0 1 0

JSON: /api/events/44353/archetypes/Wind Allies