← Regionals @ The Banish Zone 2/28
Water FractalTier 1
at Regionals @ The Banish Zone 2/28
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 6.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.8% | -3.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.0% | -13.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.1% | +1.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.6 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 2.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.6% | +12.1 |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.8% | -8.3 |
| Fire Exia | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Fire Genbu | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +13.0 |
| Wind Alice | 1.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.0% | +3.8 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.0% | +11.5 |
| Wind Byakko | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.4 |
| Wind Slimes | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.3 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 4 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 4 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orb of Hubris | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Captivating Opulence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |