← Regionals @ The Banish Zone 2/28
Water Crux AssassinTier 2
at Regionals @ The Banish Zone 2/28
decks
2
(2.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
3-5-2
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.4%
avg ELO -0.3 per match
expected value
50.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1197
· median 1197
· range 1122–1272
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1054
Q1 1246
Q3 1419
1656
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.6 |
| Wind Allies | 6.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.9% | +20.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 5.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.8% | +1.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 5.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.4% | -12.1 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | +2.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Genbu | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Alice | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.4% | -2.5 |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -2.4 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
