← Regionals @ The Banish Zone 2/28
Water Tera MageTier 2
at Regionals @ The Banish Zone 2/28
decks
2
(2.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
13
5-7-1
overall winrate
42.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
38.7%
avg ELO -4.7 per match
expected value
48.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1352
· median 1352
· range 1349–1355
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1054
Q1 1246
Q3 1419
1656
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.7% | +4.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.7% | -6.2 |
| Wind Allies | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 5.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.0% | -15.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.2% | -23.7 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.1% | -4.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.4% | +5.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +18.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Genbu | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.7% | -24.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Alice | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.6 |
| Wind Byakko | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
