← Regionals @ The Banish Zone 2/28
Water AetherwingTier 1
at Regionals @ The Banish Zone 2/28
decks
4
(5.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
28
18-10-0
overall winrate
64.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.2%
avg ELO +1.2 per match
expected value
54.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1450
· median 1444
· range 1321–1590
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1054
Q1 1246
Q3 1419
1656
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.6% | -2.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 6.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.1% | +5.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -1.3 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.6% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 58.7% | +5.6 |
| Water Fractal | 5.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.0% | +13.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -12.9 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.2% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 25.5% | -18.3 |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.7% | +5.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.7% | +4.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.4% | +3.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.4% | -2.5 |
| Fire Exia | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Genbu | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.6 |
| Wind Alice | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.5 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -16.0 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.7% | +10.3 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
