← Regionals @ The Banish Zone 2/28
Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at Regionals @ The Banish Zone 2/28
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.3% | -18.7 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.9% | -12.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.3% | -4.3 |
| Water Fractal | 5.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -1.8 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 2.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -2.0 |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.6% | -5.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.7% | -21.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Genbu | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Alice | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -16.0 |
| Wind Byakko | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.7% | -8.5 |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 14 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 14 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow White, Weiss Queen | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Conniving Plans | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ravishing Finale | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aquifer Seneschal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |