EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Regionals.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 2.6% | 6 | 66.7% | 63.9% | 60.0% | 61.2% | 1237 | — |
| 2 | Water Allies | 1 | 2.6% | 6 | 75.0% | 64.7% | 59.5% | 59.0% | 1358 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 5.1% | 12 | 83.3% | 62.1% | 58.6% | 53.8% | 1380 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 2.6% | 6 | 83.3% | 60.9% | 57.8% | 54.1% | 1426 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Water Fractal | 3 | 7.7% | 18 | 61.1% | 62.1% | 57.2% | 58.0% | 1201 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 2.6% | 6 | 58.3% | 54.3% | 56.9% | 56.0% | 1168 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 2.6% | 6 | 66.7% | 63.6% | 56.7% | 57.4% | 1239 | — |
| 8 | Fire Umbra Alice | 1 | 2.6% | 6 | 58.3% | 56.5% | 55.4% | 55.7% | 1170 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 2.6% | 6 | 66.7% | 50.6% | 54.5% | 50.9% | 1329 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 2 | 5.1% | 10 | 50.0% | 51.4% | 52.8% | 52.9% | 1235 | — |
| 11 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 4 | 10.3% | 17 | 50.0% | 54.8% | 52.3% | 53.5% | 1269 | — |
| 12 | Fire Exia | 1 | 2.6% | 3 | 33.3% | 49.8% | 51.4% | 53.8% | 1169 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Fire Umbra Ciel | 1 | 2.6% | 6 | 50.0% | 56.8% | 51.4% | 53.4% | 1179 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Water Luxem Assassin | 1 | 2.6% | 6 | 66.7% | 49.8% | 50.0% | 47.3% | 1352 | ↑ top |
| 15 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 2.6% | 5 | 30.0% | 41.3% | 45.7% | 46.1% | 1304 | ↑ top |
| 16 | Water Genbu | 6 | 15.4% | 27 | 40.7% | 38.8% | 45.7% | 44.0% | 1265 | — |
| 17 | Wind Shadowstrike | 4 | 10.3% | 18 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 45.5% | 47.4% | 1192 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Water Wind Vanitas | 1 | 2.6% | 3 | 33.3% | 45.4% | 43.3% | 45.1% | 1303 | ↑ top |
| 19 | Fire Aetherwing | 2 | 5.1% | 8 | 25.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | 45.8% | 1192 | ↓ low |
| 20 | Wind Umbra Ranger | 1 | 2.6% | 5 | 40.0% | 35.9% | 43.1% | 40.3% | 1357 | ↑ top |
| 21 | Wind Cats | 1 | 2.6% | 5 | 20.0% | 44.2% | 41.8% | 46.8% | 1159 | ↓ low |
| 22 | Wind Luxem Assassin | 1 | 2.6% | 3 | 16.7% | 35.5% | 41.1% | 41.2% | 1210 | ↓ low |
| 23 | Slimes | 1 | 2.6% | 6 | 16.7% | 29.3% | 38.1% | 37.8% | 1125 | ↓ low |