EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at PTM 店家冠軍賽.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 3.0% | 9 | 88.9% | 64.6% | 58.2% | 55.4% | 1502 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Crux Merlin | 1 | 3.0% | 7 | 64.3% | 56.4% | 55.1% | 53.6% | 1386 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Arcane | 2 | 6.1% | 14 | 71.4% | 62.3% | 54.9% | 53.2% | 1354 | — |
| 4 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 6.1% | 13 | 61.5% | 56.9% | 54.7% | 54.0% | 1345 | — |
| 5 | Wind Byakko | 1 | 3.0% | 5 | 60.0% | 50.1% | 54.6% | 51.4% | 1319 | — |
| 6 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 3.0% | 6 | 58.3% | 61.1% | 53.1% | 55.3% | 1297 | — |
| 7 | Water Tera Cleric | 1 | 3.0% | 5 | 50.0% | 54.2% | 53.1% | 53.8% | 1163 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Water Aetherwing | 3 | 9.1% | 15 | 60.0% | 54.4% | 52.7% | 51.9% | 1437 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Wind Umbra Ranger | 1 | 3.0% | 3 | 33.3% | 42.0% | 51.4% | 48.7% | 1379 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 3.0% | 5 | 60.0% | 51.6% | 51.1% | 49.5% | 1389 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 3.0% | 5 | 40.0% | 47.1% | 50.2% | 51.2% | 1210 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Wind Seiryuu | 4 | 12.1% | 17 | 38.2% | 42.4% | 48.9% | 48.8% | 1280 | — |
| 13 | Water Fractal | 4 | 12.1% | 17 | 38.2% | 39.3% | 48.0% | 47.7% | 1306 | — |
| 14 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 5 | 15.2% | 20 | 45.0% | 45.8% | 47.3% | 47.5% | 1288 | — |
| 15 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 3 | 9.1% | 17 | 35.3% | 44.7% | 46.9% | 49.8% | 1215 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Fire Exia | 1 | 3.0% | 3 | 16.7% | 43.6% | 46.7% | 48.2% | 1226 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 3.0% | 5 | 20.0% | 43.7% | 44.6% | 49.0% | 1261 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Water Umbra Ciel | 1 | 3.0% | 3 | 33.3% | 48.9% | 42.5% | 47.0% | 1249 | ↓ low |
| 19 | Wind Allies | 1 | 3.0% | 3 | 33.3% | 41.3% | 37.8% | 38.3% | 1369 | ↑ top |