← FTG PTM Regional Championship
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at FTG PTM Regional Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 2.6% | 6 | 75.0% | 63.9% | 59.8% | 59.0% | 1262 | — |
| 2 | Water Allies | 1 | 2.6% | 6 | 75.0% | 66.2% | 59.3% | 59.8% | 1378 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 2.6% | 6 | 75.0% | 66.2% | 59.3% | 59.8% | 1378 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 2.6% | 6 | 91.7% | 60.5% | 57.9% | 53.9% | 1656 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 2.6% | 6 | 75.0% | 56.6% | 55.0% | 50.7% | 1364 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Wind Allies | 1 | 2.6% | 7 | 64.3% | 52.3% | 54.2% | 52.1% | 1453 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Wind Seiryuu | 3 | 7.9% | 18 | 63.9% | 51.8% | 53.8% | 51.1% | 1488 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Water Genbu | 3 | 7.9% | 16 | 62.5% | 53.8% | 53.5% | 51.0% | 1379 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Wind Umbra Ranger | 1 | 2.6% | 6 | 33.3% | 43.6% | 52.0% | 53.3% | 1226 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 2.6% | 6 | 58.3% | 60.8% | 52.0% | 56.1% | 1234 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Water Luxem Assassin | 1 | 2.6% | 6 | 58.3% | 48.4% | 51.0% | 49.9% | 1349 | — |
| 12 | Wind Shadowstrike | 5 | 13.2% | 29 | 46.6% | 43.3% | 50.1% | 49.1% | 1304 | — |
| 13 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 2.6% | 7 | 42.9% | 52.9% | 49.3% | 51.1% | 1139 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Wind Exia | 1 | 2.6% | 6 | 41.7% | 40.3% | 48.9% | 46.6% | 1382 | ↑ top |
| 15 | Water Astra Ranger | 1 | 2.6% | 6 | 58.3% | 51.1% | 48.7% | 49.6% | 1445 | ↑ top |
| 16 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 2.6% | 6 | 50.0% | 52.7% | 47.3% | 49.0% | 1278 | — |
| 17 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 2 | 5.3% | 12 | 37.5% | 45.6% | 47.1% | 49.0% | 1221 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Water Fractal | 4 | 10.5% | 19 | 42.1% | 49.1% | 46.8% | 49.6% | 1284 | — |
| 19 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 2.6% | 5 | 50.0% | 60.4% | 46.2% | 52.4% | 1355 | — |
| 20 | Water Neos | 1 | 2.6% | 6 | 41.7% | 53.7% | 45.6% | 49.1% | 1153 | ↓ low |
| 21 | Fire Crux Mage | 2 | 5.3% | 12 | 45.8% | 38.5% | 45.3% | 43.9% | 1376 | ↑ top |
| 22 | Fire Exia | 1 | 2.6% | 6 | 33.3% | 52.6% | 45.0% | 50.5% | 1109 | ↓ low |
| 23 | Wind Chess | 1 | 2.6% | 4 | 12.5% | 32.1% | 41.4% | 42.9% | 1171 | ↓ low |
| 24 | Fire Umbra Alice | 1 | 2.6% | 5 | 10.0% | 42.3% | 40.8% | 46.1% | 957 | ↓ low |
| 25 | Fire Genbu | 1 | 2.6% | 3 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.0% | 41.8% | 1175 | ↓ low |
| 26 | Water Crux Assassin | 1 | 2.6% | 5 | 0.0% | 38.0% | 40.0% | 46.1% | 989 | ↓ low |