Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at Game Nut Regional
decks
4
(9.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
23
11-11-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.7%
avg ELO +1.4 per match
expected value
49.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1254
· median 1286
· range 1077–1368
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1077
Q1 1189
Q3 1368
1689
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 12.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.2% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 41.9% | -5.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 51.3% | +1.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.6 |
| Water Genbu | 4.9% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 38.2% | -8.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.1% | +4.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +0.8 |
| Wind Slimes | 4.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 59.9% | +7.4 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.7% | -8.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.5 |
| Wind Exia | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
