Water Crux AssassinTier 2
at Game Nut Regional
decks
1
(2.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-3-1
overall winrate
41.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.2%
avg ELO +4.4 per match
expected value
48.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1231
· median 1231
· range 1231–1231
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1077
Q1 1189
Q3 1368
1689
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 12.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.0% | -4.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.3 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 9.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.1% | -6.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.4% | +3.8 |
| Wind Slimes | 4.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.3 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.3% | +24.5 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Assassin decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
