Water FractalTier 1
at Game Nut Regional
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 9.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.3% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 39.6% | -6.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.9% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 67.4% | +13.0 |
| Water Genbu | 4.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.5% | -8.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.9% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 66.9% | +12.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.4 |
| Wind Slimes | 4.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -0.5 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.7% | -8.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.8% | +5.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.4% | -23.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.7% | -19.7 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.7 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 36 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 36 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Captivating Opulence | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Wand of Frost | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Scepter of Fascination | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Frostbind | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Crystalline Mirror | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Enchantress | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Orb of Hubris | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shimmering Refraction | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Unstable Fractal | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Gentle Respite | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cone of Frost | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hydroguard Retainer | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fan of Seven Debts | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bubble Mage | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ceasing Edict | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Mana | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Kongming, Wayward Maven | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Kongming, Ascetic Vice | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ardent Cloudstriker | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Coriolis Ward | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |