Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at Game Nut Regional
decks
2
(4.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
4-4-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.0%
avg ELO +2.9 per match
expected value
45.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1135
· median 1135
· range 1127–1142
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1077
Q1 1189
Q3 1368
1689
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 12.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.7% | -12.8 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 9.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.9% | -4.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.0 |
| Wind Slimes | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.9% | +19.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.4 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
