← Regional Event - The Banish Zone
Fire AggroTier 1
at Regional Event - The Banish Zone
decks
5
(9.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
22
14-8-0
overall winrate
63.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.2%
avg ELO +1.9 per match
expected value
54.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1311
· median 1292
· range 1108–1656
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
957
Q1 1128
Q3 1315
1656
40% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
20% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 13.7% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 58.6% | +5.5 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 11.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.2 |
| Wind Allies | 11.8% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 34.5% | -9.9 |
| Fire Erupting | 9.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.4% | +4.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.4% | -3.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.1% | +2.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.8% | +20.5 |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.7 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +0.9 |
| Wind Neos | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.3 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
