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Fire Crux MageTier 1
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 13.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.4% | +5.5 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 11.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.6% | -10.9 |
| Wind Allies | 11.8% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 41.0% | -5.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.6% | +3.4 |
| Fire Erupting | 9.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 43.0% | -6.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.9% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 66.6% | +12.4 |
| Fire Neos | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 3.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.0% | +3.3 |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.8 |
| Wind Silvie | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 33 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 33 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tether in Flames | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Exorcise Curses | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Devastating Blow | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Disintegrate | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Erupting Rhapsody | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Momentum | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Meltdown | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incendiary Fractal | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |